Zwischen Handelskriegen und Energiewende – Auswirkungen des EU-China-Handelskonflikts auf deutsche Unternehmen in der Branche für erneuerbare Energie

Abstract

As the global energy transition accelerates, the renewable energy sector has emerged as a showplace for geopolitical competition. Amid intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, e.g. the trade frictions between the EU and China, European firms face the challenge of balancing cost efficiency with strategic sovereignty. This thesis therefore investigates how current trade tensions between the EU and China impact the supply chain strategies of German companies in the photovoltaics, wind, and battery sectors. Methodologically, the study combines a qualitative literature analysis with four semi-structured expert interviews with representatives from academia and policy think tanks. Based on a deductive-inductive coding approach, it identifies seven core risk categories and ten strategic response patterns. The findings reveal that the primary threat lies not in potential tariff or non-tariff trade barriers, but in a deep-seated, asymmetric dependence on China for critical raw materials and technological components. Consequently, while a full decoupling is deemed impractical, the research advocates for a robust de-risking framework centered on diversification of sourcing and production locations, nearshoring and friend-shoring, strategic partnerships with third countries, investments in technological innovation and circular economy approaches, complementary inventory strategies, and selective engagement with China. Ultimately, these strategies represent a shift toward more resilient governance structures, providing a roadmap for policymakers and executives to secure Europe’s energy infrastructure within an era of systemic rivalry.